Paper co-authored by PhD student Chinmay Divekar accepted for publication in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society

A paper titled, ‘Real-time forecasting within soccer matches through a Bayesian lens’, co-authored by Chinmay Divekar, student of the Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) programme of IIM Bangalore (Decision Sciences area), along with Dr. Soudeep Deb of the Decision Sciences area of IIMB and Prof. Rishideep Roy of the University of Essex, has been accepted for publication in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (ABDC: A).

Abstract of paper: This paper employs a Bayesian methodology in a novel framework to predict the results of soccer matches in real time. Using sequential data of various events throughout the match, the researchers utilize a multinomial probit regression in a novel framework to estimate the time-varying impact of covariates and to forecast the outcome. The researchers use English Premier League data from eight seasons to evaluate the efficacy of the method. Different evaluation metrics establish that the proposed model outperforms potential competitors inspired by existing statistical or Machine Learning algorithms. Additionally, robustness checks are applied to demonstrate the model’s accuracy across various scenarios.